We focused on flaws of intuition and of intuitive thinking, and I can tell you how it began. It began with a conversation about whether people are good intuitive statisticians or not. There was a claim at the University of Michigan by some people with whom Amos had studied, that people are good intuitive statisticians. I was teaching statistics at the time, and I was convinced that this was completely false. Not only because my students were not good intuitive statisticians, but because I knew I wasn't. My intuitions about things were quite poor, in fact, and this has remained one of the mysteries, and it's one of the things that I'd like to talk about today — what are the difficulties of statistical thinking, and why is it so difficult.
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Entries in Psychology (32)
Here is a review of Creativity from Contraints: The Psychology of Breakthrough by Patricia Stokes. Stokes is a former advertising graphic artist who became a psychologist following her desire to understand creative behaviour as she had observed it in her profession. In summary, Stokes proposes there are four main constraints to creativity - domain, cognition,variability, talent - and it is how come to understand and articulate these constraints in context that will enable the kind of creative behaviours reuired to obtain decision making breakthroughs that can be considered creative as opposed to more of the same.
You come up with a great new idea at work, or at home. Or a political leader actually tries something “new and different” when faced with a previously intractable problem. But then, rather than grateful acceptance, or even a fair hearing, the idea is squashed, ridiculed, or otherwise ignored. Sound familiar? It should. As anyone who has ever suggested a creative solution knows, people often avoid the uncomfortable uncertainty of novel solutions regardless of potential benefit. Creativity, no matter how much we say we like it, frequently elicits what my grandmother used to warn about, “too smart is half stupid” (for a current illustration look no further than the Obama administration).
The way we currently organise ourselves is increasingly out of step with our fast-evolving environment. What if organisations were to become a societal movement, whose passionate members had the drive to make a difference? People are dynamic and innovative – organisations aren’t. Yet flextime and connecting via social media are not enough. Let’s envision a new form of management, people engagement and leadership – a world where organisations would adapt to their employees, rather than vice versa. In short, an integrated approach to the oft-cited ‘New Way of Working’ (NWW).
A few years ago, I was on a small regional jet when we smelled smoke. The pilot barked orders into the speaker to put out any lighted cigarette immediately. As it turned out, no one was smoking — the alarm was the result of a faulty smoke detector. But the pilot's tone transmitted fear, and that fear spread through the cabin. On another flight, the pilot announced that there was a problem with the plane's hydraulics and that they had to consult with Boeing to decide the best way to get us on the ground. The second situation was far more serious and involved two failed landing attempts before we finally touched down safely. But I will never forget how calm everyone was because the confidence in our pilot's voice was contagious.